Surprising Trend in the Number of New Homes on the Market
If you are thinking about moving, you should be aware of what is going on in the housing market. Here's an update on the current supply of homes for sale. The number of homes in your area is something you should consider whether you are buying or selling.
Seasonality refers to the regular patterns that occur in the housing market year after year. Spring is peak homebuying season, as well as when the most homes are typically listed for sale (new listings are homes that come onto the market). The number of new listings typically decreases in the second half of each year as the pace of sales slows.
The graph below uses data from Realtor.com to provide a visual of this seasonality. It shows how this year (the black line) is breaking from the norm (see graph below):
Looking at this graph, three things become clear:
- 2017-2019 (the blue and gray lines) follow the same general pattern. These years were very typical in the housing market and their lines on the graph show normal, seasonal trends.
- Starting in 2020, the data broke from the normal trend. The big drop down in 2020 (the orange line) signals when the pandemic hit and many sellers paused their plans to move. 2021 (the green line) and 2022 (the red line) follow the normal trend a bit more, but still are abnormal in their own ways.
- This year (the black line) is truly unique. The steep drop off in new listings that usually occurs this time of year hasn’t happened. If 2023 followed the norm, the line representing this year would look more like the dotted black line. Instead, the number of new listings is beginning to level off. And, compared to the same time last year, there are even more new listings on the market this year.
What Does This Mean for You?
- For buyers, new listings stabilizing is a positive sign. It means you have a more steady stream of options coming onto the market and more choices for your next home than you would have at the same time last year. This opens up possibilities and allows you to explore a variety of homes that suit your needs.
- For sellers, while new listings are breaking seasonal norms, inventory is still well below where it was before the pandemic. If you look again at the graph, you’ll see the black line for this year is still lower than normal, meaning inventory isn’t going up dramatically and prices aren’t heading for a crash. And with less competition from other sellers than you’d see in a more typical year, your house has a better chance to be in the spotlight and attract eager buyers.
Whether you're on the hunt for your next home or thinking of selling, now might just be the perfect time to make your move. If you have questions or concerns about the availability of homes in our local area, let’s connect.